Las Vegas Housing Outlook: Big Home-Price Gains in 2019 and 2020?

Welcome to the Home Buying Institute’s Las Vegas Housing Market Outlook for 2019 to 2020. This report was created to give home buyers, investors, and real estate agents some idea of what to expect in 2019, in terms of local housing trends.

Las Vegas Housing Market ‘Poised to Rule’ in 2019

In January,® included Las Vegas in its list of “10 Surprising Housing Markets Poised to Rule in 2019.” To come up with their list (which also included Phoenix, Miami and Boston), the group’s research team looked at the number of sales of existing homes and their prices, along with the amount of new home construction in the 100 largest metro areas in the country.

They analyzed “the local economies of each area, along with population trends, unemployment rates, median household incomes, and other factors.”

Based on their analysis, the group stated that Las Vegas is one of several real estate markets where both the number of home sales and prices are expected to jump in 2019, bucking the national slowdown trend.

A couple of points about this ranking:

We also forecast that the Las Vegas real estate market will outperform the nation as a whole in 2019, in terms of home-price appreciation. But there’s an important trend that was left out of this particular study. The Las Vegas housing market is indeed cooling down. There’s more inventory available today, and that will likely lead to smaller home-price gains in 2019 than what we saw in 2018.

With that being said, Las Vegas is still a strong and active real estate market. And it will likely remain that way for the foreseeable future. We expect home prices in this market to rise more than the national average in 2019. Given the current supply-and-demand situation in the area, it would not be surprising to see the median home value in Las Vegas climb somewhere between 6% and 8% during 2019.

Home Prices Past, Present and (Possible) Future

Home prices in Las Vegas rose steadily over the last few years, outpacing the national average. (Of course, prices in this market declined harder and faster than the nation as a whole during the last housing crash, and that certainly plays a role in the rapid rise we are seeing today.) The difference is that the current run-up in prices is a bit more sustainable, being driven more by supply and demand instead of rampant speculation.

As of January 2019, the median home value in Las Vegas was around $277,000.

Home prices in Las Vegas have more than doubled from the low-water market set in 2012, but they still haven’t reached the peak set during the previous housing boom. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, either. The price peak reached back in the 2000s was the result of an unsustainable bubble. So we should hope things are different this time around.

During 2018, the median home value in Las Vegas rose by around 14% according to Zillow. That was nearly double the national rate of appreciation during that same 12-month period.

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